This week (22–26 September), I will be in Oman discussing the impact of AI on diplomacy, centred around two guiding questions:
This text provides a few reflections for answering these and other questions on the nexus between traditional and tech diplomacy.
Oman’s modern role as a hub of diplomacy and mediation is rooted in a long history and cultural tradition. Strategically placed at the crossroads between the Gulf, South Asia, and Africa, Oman has extensive experience in navigating complex geopolitical dynamics.
The need to balance relations with powerful trading partners and local rivals throughout its history fostered a diplomatic habit of non-alignment and facilitation. Culturally, its pragmatic diplomacy is profoundly informed by its Ibadi tradition, a particularly moderate stream of Islam. The success of this approach has built an invaluable, intangible asset: trust.
This tradition is what allows Oman to serve as a discreet back-channel for delicate negotiations. The Sultanate’s “leak-proof” style of quiet diplomacy, rooted in trust and discretion, has made it the preferred safe space for the most delicate negotiations (see table).
Most notably, Oman has been the place of choice for negotiations between American and Iranian diplomats during periods of high tension. It hosted the preliminary talks that led to the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement and, more recently, laid the groundwork for the 2023 Saudi–Iran reconciliation. In a region often marred by rivalry, Oman’s consistent ability to maintain dialogue is widely admired.
| Parties Involved | Issue/Conflict | Date | Outcome/Role |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iraq and Iran | First Gulf War (1980s) | 1980s | Practised impartiality; advocated peaceful resolution. |
| USA and Iran | Secret talks on nuclear programme | Early 2010s | Hosted back-channel talks leading to the 2015 JCPOA. |
| Saudi Arabia and Qatar | Arab boycott of Qatar | 2017 | Remained neutral; avoided participation. |
| Saudi Arabia and Iran | Diplomatic rapprochement | Recent years | Facilitated dialogue and de-escalation. |
| USA and Iran | Prisoner exchange | 2023 | Brokered a USD 6 billion prisoner exchange. |
| Saudi-led Coalition and Yemen | Yemeni civil war | Ongoing | Remained neutral; did not participate in the coalition. |
Oman also possesses a long technological tradition. The Aflaj irrigation system, a UNESCO World Heritage Site, was developed around 2500 BCE as a community-based technology that required mutual dependency and fair water management for survival in an arid environment. Since these early beginnings, the Omani people have been innovative in using water, sea navigation, and other technological innovations.
Today, Oman’s Vision 2040 aims to diversify its economy from heavy dependence on oil. AI and digitalisation are central to this vision, with the goal that digitalisation will contribute 10% to the nation’s GDP by 2040, a significant increase from the current 2%.
Oman also aims to be among the top 50 countries in the Government AI Readiness Index. A particularly notable initiative is the plan to develop an Omani language model using generative AI, a move that would embed the nation’s cultural and historical heritage directly into a core AI technology.
Based on Oman’s long diplomatic traditions and high technological ambitions, here are a few points for the future of diplomacy in the AI era.
No matter how advanced our technology becomes, direct engagement between people, face-to-face dialogue, remains irreplaceable in diplomacy. Oman’s greatest asset has been its role as a trusted back-channel for conflict resolution. Its history of discreet mediation shows that human trust and personal rapport are what ultimately resolve conflicts, whether in ancient times between tribes or in modern times between states. Diplomats will always need private, human-to-human channels to find common ground, even as AI tools work in the background.
In today’s hyper-connected world, the value of a quiet, neutral negotiation space is higher than ever. With social media and 24/7 news, negotiators often feel pressured to perform for audiences back home rather than truly engage with their counterparts across the table. National pride, historical grievances, and public emotions, all amplified online, can overshadow the search for compromise and conflict resolution.
Oman’s tradition of discreet diplomacy provides a remedy: talks held in Muscat can proceed away from the glare of TV cameras and social media feeds. Such a setting shields mediators from the noise, allowing them to focus on real dialogue instead of soundbites. In a very real sense, places like Oman keep diplomacy grounded and sincere when public pressure runs high.
There is much discussion about AI and digital tools changing diplomacy. Yet, it is clear that technology will not replace human negotiators; rather, it can significantly augment their work. For instance, AI can help diplomats sift through historical data or analyse public sentiment rapidly, providing background research in seconds.
Communication platforms can connect negotiators securely across the globe, and data analytics might suggest creative win-win solutions. However, it is important that these tech tools serve the needs of mediation, not dictate them. The judgement of when to push, when to concede, or how to appeal to someone’s humanity is something only experienced diplomats can gauge.
As AI begins to mimic cultural and ethical practices, there is a pressing need to ensure that diverse cultural and religious traditions are reflected in AI systems. Oman, with its unique position straddling the Gulf, the West, South Asia, and Africa, can help enrich the quality of AI models and global tech discussions by injecting a diverse range of cultural and philosophical inputs.
Analogous to being a meeting place for diverse and often conflicting diplomatic interests, Oman can serve as an AI civilisational bridge, enhancing cutting-edge models with different cultural and philosophical traditions, from Western scientific rationalism to Islamic thought and African communal values.
With these background thoughts in mind, I look forward to exploring how Oman’s rich diplomatic and cultural history can help strike the right balance between the continuity of diplomacy’s core function, to resolve conflicts peacefully, and the changes brought by new AI technologies.
This week’s discussions and brainstorming could lead towards an ‘Oman formula’ for dealing with diplomatic continuity and changes in the AI era.
