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Why did the 21st century start on 20 January 2025?

Jovan Kurbalija
Published on January 30 2025
The 21st century is considered to have started on 20 January 2025, marked by two significant events: Donald Trump's return to power and the launch of DeepSeek, a transformative open-source AI. Trump's presidency symbolizes the end of U.S. global leadership, while DeepSeek's release indicates a shift from industrial to cognitive capitalism. This new era is characterized by political fragmentation and a techno-cognitive revolution, challenging traditional power structures. The concept of "long centuries" reflects the enduring socio-political forces shaping history, with the long 20th century concluding in 2025, paving the way for a new epoch of volatility and innovation.

History doesn’t follow a calendar but defining ideas. The “long 19th century” began with the French Revolution (1789) and ended with World War I (1914). Similarly, the “long 20th century” began in 1917, when the U.S. entered World War I and emerged as a global power.

What is the concept of a ‘long century’?

It is historiographical approach to look into causes of historical developments beyond specific events. French historian Fernand Braudel made a major methodological contribution by introducing historical analysis around three types of ‘time’:

Longue durée: Slow-moving forces like geography, climate, and social systems that shape history over milenias and centuries.
Conjonctures: Medium-term cycles, such as economic trends or demographic shifts, unfolding over decades.
Événements: Short-term events like wars or revolutions are often surface-level and attract a lot of attention while, often, missing deeper structural context.

Braudel argued that true historical insight comes from focusing on the longue durée and conjonctures—the enduring forces that define societal developments.

‘Long centuries’ place current developments such as Trump inauguration and DeepSeek release into wider time context of Braudel’s methodology.

Symbolically, the 21st century started on 20 January 2025 with two defining events—Donald Trump’s divisive return to power and the seismic release of DeepSeek, a Chinese open-source AI. Here’s why.

1. Trump Moment: The end of the Pax Americana and the Enlightenment era?

Trump’s return to power represented not merely a political recalibration but the conclusion of an era anchored in American global leadership. Since 1917, the United States has served as the principal architect of international institutions, alliances, and the advancement of democratic ideals. The “America First” agenda—prioritizing national sovereignty over global entanglements and domestic economic interests over multilateral frameworks—signalled a deliberate retreat from the traditional US diplomatic approach highlighted by State Secretary Marco Rubio:

So it’s not normal for the world to simply have a unipolar power.  That was not – that was an anomaly.  It was a product of the end of the Cold War, but eventually you were going to reach back to a point where you had a multipolar world, multi-great powers in different parts of the planet.

What is America’s ‘long century’?

America’s ‘long century’ origins can be traced back to 16 January 1917. That day, The New York Times published the Zimmermann Telegram, a secret message from Berlin to Mexico City proposing an alliance: if Mexico joined Germany in World War I, it would be rewarded by getting California and other territories of the south-western U.S.

The British intelligence operation that exposed the telegram sparked public outrage, pushing Congress to end the isolation policy and declare war on Germany. The U.S. embraced a global mission from that moment, shaping international institutions, alliances, and liberal ideals for over a century.

Trump’s presidency marked the end of this era. While the U.S. will remain active globally, it is no longer its priority. The new administration shifted focus to a national agenda, economic protectionism, and scepticism toward global institutions.

Trump ‘walked the talk’ by withdrawing during the first week of his administration from the Parice climate change agreement and the World Health Organisation.

Crisis of Enlightenment

Yet Trump’s shift transcended politics. It revealed a growing scepticism toward a defining assumption of modernity: that societies function within a universally shared framework of rational thought, a concept forged during the ‘long 20th century’. This period saw sustained efforts to impose scientific rigour—rooted in observation, experimentation, and predictability—in understanding human conditions and our society. Politics, the realm of arts, intuition, and statecraft, was recast as “political science,” while social dynamics started being treated as phenomena reducible to formulaic analysis.

Resistance to this ‘scientification’ of society, however, predated Trump. Postmodern scholars warned against conflating human behaviour with laboratory experiments. Over time, scepticism spread beyond academia. Public trust in scientific consensus—once viewed as an objective foundation of society—eroded, exacerbated by social media’s amplification of competing narratives and partisan media’s weaponisation of discourse. This erosion of shared truths has precipitated an epistemic crisis, challenging the Enlightenment’s core proposition: that reason alone can order society.

As we enter this nascent era, the imperative is to give rationality a new purpose. The Enlightenment project can endure only by revitalizing critical thinking and tempering empirical rigour by acknowledging human complexity—cultural heritage, communal bonds, and societal complexities.

The path forward should avoid risks of reactionary tribalism and technocratic overreach. Instead, it demands a renewed modernity: one that harmonizes reason with humility, recognizing that enduring institutions must account for both human imperfection and the irreducible diversity of society.

This article is part of our ongoing series on the far-reaching consequences of Trump’s leadership.
To see more articles on this subject, visit our Trump Moment blog collection page.

2. DeepSeek Moment: The rise of the cognitive economy

On Trump’s inauguration day, DeepSeek launched a groundbreaking open-source AI model, challenging Big Tech’s dominance by offering free access to its code—unlike proprietary systems from OpenAI and Anthropic.

DeepSeek’s moment transcends a mere tech breakthrough, heralding the dawn of a ‘new century’:

First, it marks a shift from industrial capitalism-driven mainly by money and machines- to a cognitive economy- fueled by knowledge and creativity.

Second, wealth and economic power will diminish as determinants of success. DeepSeek developed its model with 20 times less investment than tech giants, attracting top talent by prioritising, among other motivations, the centrality of open-source collaboration.

Third, once tech imitators, Chinese companies and labs now lead a new competition: not for control of data and technology, but for defining how innovation unfolds in the AI era.

Don’t miss the DeepSeek Moment.
Stay updated on the latest developments and in-depth analysis of DeepSeek’s transformative impact on AI, security, geopolitics, and more.

The new century starts

As the ‘long 20th century’ collapsed under its own flaws—globalization’s inequities, institutional decay, and the weaponisation of facts and truth, we enter in highly uncertain era of volatility and possibility for reinvention. Three main questions will resonate in the coming years:



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