In exploring the interplay between certainty, probability, and mystery in AI, the insights from Robert Harris's film Conclave provoke deep reflection. Certainty, while desirable, can mislead, especially in addressing life's complex questions. AI, rooted in probability, embodies this uncertainty, serving as a mirror of human imperfection. Embracing doubt allows for adaptability, while fostering a sense of mystery can inspire creativity and growth. We must navigate AI’s transformative potential with caution, critically engaging with its risks and possibilities, ensuring it enhances rather than dominates our lives. This balance between the known and the unknown is key to understanding AI's role in society.
Last week, while watching the film Conclave by Robert Harris, a particular line stayed with me as highly relevant for dealing with AI: “There is one sin which I have come to fear above all others. Certainty! If there were only certainty and no doubt, there would be no mystery. And therefore, no need for faith.”
These worlds from Conclave summarise well the paradoxical nature of AI, a technology that embodies elements of certainty, doubt, and mystery. It sparked many questions, including:
Does AI deliver functional certainty as previous technologies did?
Is there a mystery in AI’s ability to write poetry or hold intimate conversations?
How do certainty and doubt intertwine in AI’s probabilistic nature?
How can the triangle between certainty, probability, and mystery help us to govern AI?
Let’s explore these and other questions.
Certainty: The known knowns
Certainty feels like a deeply human quest. Across history, science and technology have been our tools for reducing uncertainty. Each breakthrough—fire, the wheel, electricity—gave us more control over nature and outcomes: flip a switch, and light floods the room; press a button and a message zips across the globe.
But certainty, seductive as it is, can become a mirage. It has been tempting humans to extend the logic of technological certainty into realms it cannot reach: the meaning of life, the pursuit of happiness, and the inevitability of death. Organised religions, political ideologies such as communism, and utopian visions have often promised certainty about these questions, with varying degrees of success.
Certainty in Philosophy
The importance of certainty in various philosophical traditions
Certainty is a theme that reverberates throughout the history of philosophy, shaping epistemology, metaphysics, and ethics [1]. Across different epochs and cultural contexts, thinkers have pursued various conceptions of what it means to know something “for sure,” and these quests have left lasting marks on contemporary debates about knowledge, belief, and policy.
Ancient Philosophy
Plato regarded mathematical certainty as the ideal model for philosophical inquiry, arguing that the immutable truths of geometry point the soul toward an unchanging realm of Forms [2][3][4]. In this view, certainty in knowledge mirrors the timeless, necessary truths of mathematics, standing in contrast to the fleeting nature of opinion or sensory perception.
Medieval and Islamic Perspectives
In the Islamic world, Al‑Ghazālī emphasized that true certainty arises from a combination of rational deduction and direct, experiential knowledge of the divine [5]. For him, religious practice and spiritual experience furnish a personal, profound form of certainty that can surpass purely empirical or logical assurance.
The Modern Era
René Descartes launched a systematic project of radical doubt to locate an indubitable foundation for knowledge, arriving at the famous cogito—“I think, therefore I am”—which he treated as a certainty as firm as mathematical truth [6][7]. This move set the stage for a modern epistemology that seeks certainty through clear, self‑evident propositions.
Pragmatism and the Skepticism of Certainty
In the late‑19th and early‑20th centuries, Charles Peirce and William James challenged the very value of absolute certainty. They argued that knowledge is inherently fallible and that the worth of an idea lies in its practical consequences and its ability to guide action, rather than in an unattainable, static certainty [8]. Their pragmatist stance helped usher in a broader philosophical shift toward fallibilism, the view that all knowledge remains open to revision.
Contemporary Reflections
Today, philosophers continue to debate the role of certainty. Some uphold it as an epistemic ideal worth aspiring to, while others view it as an unreachable goal, distinguishing between epistemic certainty (the highest possible status of a belief) and psychological certainty (the subjective feeling of being sure) [9]. These discussions inform practical domains such as scientific methodology—where reproducibility is equated with a form of provisional certainty—and ethics, where “moral certainty” can guide decisions even in the absence of absolute proof.
Conclusion
From the mathematical certainty championed by Plato, through the spiritual assurance articulated by Al‑Ghazālī, to Descartes’ foundational cogito and the pragmatic skepticism of Peirce and James, the pursuit of certainty has driven philosophical inquiry across centuries [10][11][12][13]. While this quest has generated profound insights and methodological advances, it has also highlighted the limits of human cognition and the inevitability of fallibility. As contemporary debates evolve, certainty remains a pivotal concept, embodying the tension between the desire for absolute knowledge and the acceptance of our epistemic humility.
References
Albertini, T. (2005). Crisis and Certainty of Faith. Retrieved from https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/spr2022/entries/certainty/
Descartes, R. (1641). Meditations on First Philosophy. Retrieved from https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/spr2022/entries/certainty/
Hetherington, S. (2001). Good Knowledge, Bad Knowledge. Retrieved from https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/spr2022/entries/certainty/
Lewis, C. I. (1952). An Analysis of Knowledge and Valuation. Retrieved from https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/spr2022/entries/certainty/
Markie, P. (1986). The Cogito and Its Importance. Retrieved from https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/spr2022/entries/certainty/
Pasnau, R. (2017). After Certainty: A History of Our Epistemic Ideals and Illusions. Retrieved from https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/spr2022/entries/certainty/
Peirce, C. S., & James, W. (n.d.). Pragmatism and the Meaning of Truth. Retrieved from https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/spr2022/entries/certainty/
Plato. (n.d.). Republic. Retrieved from https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/spr2022/entries/certainty/
Van Cleve, J. (1979). Foundationalism, Epistemic Principles, and the Cartesian Circle. Retrieved from https://plato.stanford.edu/archives/spr2022/entries/certainty/
AI challenges this historical narrative. Unlike traditional technologies that thrive on certainty, AI is rooted in probability, an embrace of the uncertain.
Probability: The known unknowns
AI is a powerful guessing machine deriving probable answers from oceans of data. This makes it fundamentally different from all deterministic technologies, from mechanics to traditional computing.
The importance of doubt, as narrated in a scene from Conclave, relates to the centrality of probability in AI. For example, ChatGPT doesn’t offer guarantees, only probabilities of truth. It mirrors our imperfections—our doubts, our leaps of logic.
Ironically, AI’s human-like nature makes us uneasy with this technology. It feels less like a tool and more like a reflection, capable of mistakes and prone to surprises. This blurring of lines feeds fears of AI as not just a servant but a master.
Yet probability also holds promise. AI can explore beyond rigid boundaries, generate creative solutions, and help us navigate complexity. In doubt, there is a possibility.
Probability in Philosophy
Probability in various philosophical traditions
Probability, as a philosophical concept, has travelled a long and winding route through human thought, shaping how societies confront uncertainty, chance, and belief [1].
From the early stirrings of language to modern mathematics Long before the elegant equations of the seventeenth‑century scholars, medieval and Renaissance thinkers already wielded a vocabulary of “probable” (probabilis), “credible” (credibilis) and “truth‑like” (verisimilis) to qualify doubtful judgments in moral, legal and theological debates [2].
The formal mathematics of probability, however, took shape when Blaise Pascal, Pierre de Fermat and Christiaan Huygens began quantifying chances in games of fortune in the mid‑1600s, a foundation later refined by the Bernoulli family, Abraham de Moivre, Pierre‑Simon Laplace and Thomas Bayes in the eighteenth century [3].
Medieval and Renaissance horizons In Scholastic Europe, probability served as a tool for navigating theological and juridical ambiguities, rooted in the writings of Aristotle, Cicero and Boethius, yet it remained peripheral to the main epistemic projects of the age [4]. The Renaissance humanists shifted the emphasis toward credibilitas—the worthiness of belief—applying the same terminology to assess the reliability of ideas rather than strictly to legal or doctrinal matters, signalling a broader intellectual diversification across the continent [5].
Beyond the West The fascination with chance was not confined to Europe. Islamic philosophers such as Al‑Fārābī, Avicenna (Ibn Sina) and Averroes (Ibn Rushd) explored degrees of belief and the credibility of propositions within logic, epistemology and law, mirroring the Christian and Scholastic engagements and underscoring the truly global character of probabilistic inquiry [6].
Contemporary interpretative families Today philosophers organise probability into three major families, each offering a distinct answer to “what is probability?”
Interpretation
Core idea
Typical illustration
Epistemic (or epistemological) probability
Objective measure of evidential support between propositions.
Assessing seismic data to estimate earthquake risk.
Subjective probability
An individual’s graded confidence or degree of belief.
A farmer’s personal judgment about the chance of rain.
Physical (frequentist/propensity) probability
Regularities of the world independent of minds, often expressed as long‑run frequencies or propensities.
The decay rate of a radioactive atom.
These categories capture the dominant strands of current debate and are widely reflected in recent scholarly surveys [7].
Why the story matters From medieval lexical tricks to the rigor of Pascal and Bayes, and from the Islamic logical traditions to today’s tripartite framework, probability has proved a versatile instrument for confronting the unknown. Its cross‑cultural evolution shows that the urge to quantify and qualify chance is a universal human impulse.
In contemporary philosophy, probability intersects with epistemology, ethics and the philosophy of science, guiding how we evaluate evidence, make decisions and draft policy in an increasingly complex world. The ongoing dialogue among epistemic, subjective and physical perspectives—enriched by diverse cultural traditions—ensures that probability will remain a dynamic field of inquiry for generations to come.
References
Daston, L. (1988). Classical Probability in the Enlightenment. Princeton University Press.
Hacking, I. (2006). The Emergence of Probability: A Philosophical Study of Early Ideas about Probability, Induction, and Statistical Inference. Cambridge University Press.
Hald, A. (2003). A History of Probability and Statistics and Their Applications before 1750. Wiley.
Black, D. (1990). Logic and Aristotle’s Rhetoric and Poetics in Medieval Arabic Philosophy. Brill.
Daiber, H. (1990). Islamic Thought in the Middle Ages: Studies in Text, Transmission and Translation, in Honour of Hans Daiber. Brill.
Miller, J. (1984). Arabic Logic: Ibn al-Tayyib on Porphyry’s Eisagoge. Brill.
Mystery: The unknown unknowns
Every technology holds an element of mystery, a magic that captivates us. However, AI elevates this to unprecedented levels. Unlike a car or a computer, which are comprehensible at a mechanical level, AI operates in dimensions that often elude human understanding. Its “mystery” feels deeper, more enigmatic.
Mystery can inspire awe and creativity but also breed fear and manipulation. In the early days of ChatGPT, fear narratives about AI’s existential risks proliferated, often accompanied by calls for monopolistic control under the guise of “protecting humanity.” These stories exploited our fascination with mystery and our fear of uncertainty.
Mystery in Philosophy
Philosophical approaches to mystery across traditions
The way different philosophical traditions approach mystery reveals much about their underlying principles, methodologies, and cultural contexts.
Western philosophical traditions
Western philosophy has traditionally approached mystery through the lens of rational inquiry and systematic analysis. The Western tradition, particularly since the Enlightenment, has emphasised the power of reason to uncover truths about the world. This approach is evident in the works of philosophers like Descartes, who sought to establish certainty through methodological doubt, and Kant, who explored the limits of human understanding (Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy).
However, not all Western philosophers have embraced this rationalist approach. Nietzsche, for example, critiqued the tendency to “nail reality down” with rigid ordering principles, arguing that this overlooks the chaotic and ambiguous aspects of existence (Nietzsche). Similarly, Wittgenstein suggested that philosophical problems often arise from misunderstandings of language, and the task of philosophy is to “show the fly the way out of the fly-bottle” (Wittgenstein).
Eastern philosophical traditions
Eastern philosophies, such as those found in Chinese and Indian traditions, often approach mystery, focusing on holistic understanding and experiential insight. For instance, the śūnyatā (emptiness) concept in Buddhism invites practitioners to transcend dualistic thinking and embrace the interconnectedness of all things. This approach is less about solving mysteries through rational analysis and more about experiencing the mystery directly through meditation and mindfulness.
Confucianism and Daoism, two major Chinese philosophical traditions, also offer unique perspectives on mystery. Confucianism emphasises the cultivation of virtue and moral understanding, suggesting that mystery can be approached through ethical living and self-cultivation. Daoism, on the other hand, embraces the mystery of the Dao, the fundamental principle underlying the universe, which is beyond human comprehension and can only be approached through intuition and harmony with nature.
Comparative philosophy
Comparative philosophy seeks to bridge the gap between different philosophical traditions, exploring how they can inform and enrich one another. This approach often examines how different cultures address similar philosophical problems, such as the nature of reality, the self, and ethical living.
One of the key challenges in comparative philosophy is methodological commensurability—how to compare traditions with different conceptual frameworks and assumptions. For example, comparing Greek and Chinese texts reveals that neither dualism nor holism is exclusive to any one culture, highlighting the dangers of imposing one’s own assumptions on another tradition.
Comparative philosophers like Bruya and Vermander argue for a multicultural approach that fosters creativity and effectiveness in problem-solving. They suggest that cross-cultural dialogue can transform mutually, allowing traditions to learn from each other and potentially develop hybrid traditions.
The role of mystery in philosophy
Mystery plays a crucial role in philosophy by challenging assumptions and expanding the boundaries of understanding. In Western philosophy, mystery often catalyses inquiry, prompting philosophers to question established norms and seek deeper truths. In Eastern traditions, mystery is embraced as an integral part of the human experience, inviting individuals to explore the unknown through introspection and spiritual practice.
Comparative philosophy highlights the potential for mystery to serve as a bridge between cultures, encouraging dialogue and collaboration. By engaging with the mysteries of other traditions, philosophers can gain new insights into their own assumptions and expand their understanding of the world.
Conclusion
The exploration of mystery across philosophical traditions reveals a rich tapestry of approaches, each offering unique insights into the human condition. Western philosophy’s emphasis on rational inquiry, Eastern philosophy’s focus on experiential insight, and the integrative potential of comparative philosophy all contribute to a deeper understanding of mystery. As philosophers continue to engage with these diverse traditions, the potential for cross-cultural dialogue and mutual enrichment remains a promising avenue for future inquiry.
So, how do we move forward? The triangle of certainty, probability, and mystery offers a roadmap:
Beware of false certainties. Whenever someone claims to have a definitive solution for AI governance, approach with caution. Certainty in this domain is often false, naive, or manipulative.
Embrace doubt. Doubt is a way to make continuous trade-offs in guiding AI developments based on our understanding of technology and its constant development.
Celebrate mystery. Rather than fearing the unknown, let it fuel creativity and exploration. Mystery, after all, has been a source of human advancement, from the arts to the sciences to religion itself.
As we navigate the profound changes AI brings to education, industry, and society, the lessons from Conclave remind us to tread carefully, think critically, and remain open to wonder. By balancing certainty, probability, and mystery, AI holds the potential to be a transformative force for good, inspiring hope and ensuring it is a powerful servant of humanity, rather than becoming an uncontrollable master.
